The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that India’s contribution to global growth will increase from the current 16% to 18% by 2028, as stated by Krishna Srinivasan from the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department on Friday. This prediction comes amid India’s rapid economic development and China’s economic slowdown.
Despite India’s projected growth, China’s economy remains significantly larger. The nominal GDP of China is anticipated to reach $23.61 trillion by 2028, significantly larger than India’s expected GDP of $5.94 trillion. The IMF figures suggest that both nations will jointly contribute about half of world growth in 2023 and 2024.
However, HSBC economists Frederic Neumann and Justin Feng argue that in terms of economy size and shares in global investment and consumption, India has yet to match China’s level of global economic impact. They posit that while India’s expansion may briefly outpace its larger rival, it is still a long way from having the same global economic influence as China.
The IMF also predicts a steady 6.3% growth rate for India this year and next. Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific region, considered the most dynamic region globally, is expected to maintain a 4.6% growth rate this year before decelerating to 4.2% in 2024 and further slowing down to a medium-term growth rate of 3.9%.
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